What Movie 5 Means for Book 7 - An Interesting Editorial

I read this over at Mugglenet, and I thought it was interesting and made sense.

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Yes, I am going to address the topic that I think most Potter fans constantly have on their mind: the release date of Book 7. Like many fans, the 07/07/07 (July 7, 2007) date really intrigued me, but I would not believe it until Bloomsbury, Scholastic, or even Jo, confirmed it. However, I believe whole heartedly that Warner Bros. have all but confirmed that this is in fact the expected release date of Book 7.

When Warner Bros. announced that the fifth movie would be released on July 13, 2007, it completely supported the 07/07/07 book date. And quite frankly, I could not understand why so many fans thought this meant that Book 7 would not come out on July 7. To really explain why the film release date supports the book release date, I need to go into some details regarding the box office profits of the first four Potter films, so bear with me.

Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s (Sorcerer’s) Stone (November 2001) was a huge box office success both domestically (North America) and worldwide. It set the record for biggest opening weekend ever and became the 2nd highest grossing film of all-time. The film grossed $317.6 million domestically and $658.9 million internationally (totaling $976.5 million worldwide).

As with most high-profile films, the sequel Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (November 2002) did not fair quite as well at the box office, but was still a huge success. The second film in the series grossed $262.0 million domestically and $614.7 million internationally (totaling $876.7 million worldwide).

That brings us to June 2004, when the third film was released. Warner Bros. decided to release the third film during the summer months. After all, Harry had proven to be successful for them during the holiday season, so it made sense to release it during the busiest movie-going season of the year. Surely Harry Potter could battle the huge summer competition and reign supreme again. Well, unfortunately for us fans, Harry could not. It is also important to note that while North Americans attend the movies more in summer, the international box office is a lot weaker.

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban had the biggest opening weekend of the three films so far and still has records for the biggest opening weekend in some European countries. However, the summer competition was too much and the film had the worst “legs” and lowest total of any Potter movie. The film garnered $249.5 million domestically and $540.3 million internationally (totaling $789.8 million). After such a huge opening, it should have been much more successful, but it made $87 million less than its predecessor. It also remains the only Harry Potter film to date that did not gross at least $600 million overseas and $800 million worldwide.

At this point, it seemed like Warner Bros. would be planning to release a new Harry Potter film every 1½ years. The fourth film was scheduled for release in November 18, 2005 and the fifth film was scheduled for release on June 1, 2007.

When Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire was released, it became apparent that November was a much better month to release a Harry Potter film. It grossed $290.0 million domestically and $602.2 million internationally (totaling $892.2 million worldwide).

Shortly following its success, Warner Bros. revoked its June 1, 2007 release date for Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. Warner Bros. and David Heyman (producer for all the films to date), implied that they were leaning towards a November 2007 release date.

A few weeks later, Warner Bros. announced that the release date of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix would be July 13, 2007.

What? July 13? Where did that come from? Looking at the evidence, why would Warner Bros. release another Harry Potter movie in the summer when all evidence points to the fact that they will earn approximately $100 million less than if they released the film during the holiday season like usual? And why July 13? The two dates that Warner Bros. was focusing on were June 1 and November 16 (the respective summer and winter weekends Harry Potter films are traditionally released on). Does anyone else think it is not just a little coincidental that July 13 is the first weekend after July 7 (the speculated Book 7 release date)?

Ask yourself, when is Pottermania most evident?

Well, Pottermania always peaks when a new book is released. Warner Bros., which I should remind you is a corporation that wants to make money, would probably love to ride the wave of hype following a book release. Scheduling the movie release 6 days after the release of the final book in the series would mean getting audiences in theatres during the absolute peak of Pottermania. Harry Potter will never be as big as it will be when the final book is released. Any businessman would want to capitalize on that hype and milk it for every single penny it is worth. Since releasing the movie in summer would make no sense unless Warner Bros. had a very good reason, it would appear that Jo herself is at least thinking that a summer 2007 release is still likely.

We all know that Jo will never confirm a release date until she is absolutely satisfied with the final draft of Book 7. But, during the release of Half-Blood Prince in summer 2005, she mentioned that she thought the book could be released in about two years. She has also commented on how 2006 will be the year she writes the last Harry Potter book.

But we all know this could change. She’s never said with 100% certainty that the book would be out in 2007. However, she may have confided with either her publishers and/or Warner Bros. that she is quite hopeful that the book would be ready in time for a summer 2007 release date. Her publishers, naturally, would then target a July 7 release for obvious reasons and Warner Bros. would target a July 13 film release. In doing so, Jo does not have to commit to a release date, but the businesses profiting from her genius story can set up their plans for the best case scenario releases based on what Jo has said to them.

Obviously, I can’t prove Jo has ever spoken to Warner Bros. or Bloomsbury, but this is the only explanation I can come up with for releasing the fifth Harry Potter movie on July 13. Especially seeing how close July 13 is to July 7. If I were a businessman, it would be a dream to capitalize on the “Book 7: 07/07/07” marketing strategy and then releasing a film at the height of Pottermania.

This makes sense - it would be great if the writer of the article was right!

Well this makes a lot of sense. I am pretty sure that the changing of the dates COULD mean the 7th book released 7/7/07! I hope that's the case. !st the book and then the movie in a weeks time. I would be in my Potter glory!!

*Runs to the closet to air out my Snape costume for the events!*

Lol besides it seems like Jo to want to do something cool like that, with all the numbers the same ^^ so she'll probably try her hardest to finish by then, if only to be able to publish the book on that cool date.

I really do hope it comes out 7/7/07 but i doubt it. First of all, shes not done with the book yet. Second of all, that would meen that the two potter things (book and movie) would be competeing with each other.

why would they be competing with each other? I think they would feed off each other.

bcuz ppl wpuld be either reading the book or seeing the movie u really wouldnt do both at the same time...

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In light of recent comments made on JK Rowling’s official site, I have decided to revise my previous article.

Although JK has been saying the book is progressing well, and that she’s “well into it now,” I’m getting the ominous feeling she still has a long way to go.

<BLOCKQUOTE>JKR.com, September 11th: Oh pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease. I haven't written 750 pages of book seven, and if I had, I'd be very worried, as I'm not close to finishing it yet. </BLOCKQUOTE>

I could reference innumerable statements Jo has made pertaining to Book 7’s progress, but they’re becoming less and less relevant; she made them too long ago for them to hold as much truth now. Instead, I’m going to dissect her most recent comment. (My notes in square brackets.)

<BLOCKQUOTE>JKR.com, September 13th: Now that I'm back from New York, the only real news is that I'm continuing to work hard on the book [reassuring us that the book is indeed going well and that she’s writing diligently]. I've done quite a lot [more reassurance, great!], and I'm really enjoying it, though [ah, not good] every now and then I look up and realise that it's THE LAST ONE. You might think I'd have got used to that idea during the sixteen years I've been planning seven books, but it still keeps hitting me... no more Harry after this... and then I bury myself in book seven again [burying is good, yes] and tell myself I've still got plenty to write [not good, but if it means the book is longer – very good].
The heightened security restrictions on the airlines in August made the journey back from New York interesting, as I refused to be parted from the manuscript of book seven (a large part of it is handwritten, and there was no copy of anything I had done while in the US [working while in the US is a good sign, as not only was she doing readings but taking a much-deserved vacation there]). They let me take it on, thankfully, bound up in elastic bands. I don't know what I would have done if they hadn't; sailed home, probably.
I am currently trying to decide between two possible titles. I was quite happy with one of them until the other one struck me while I was taking a shower in New York. They would both be appropriate, so I think I'll have to wait until I'm further into the book to decide which one works best [clearly, a lot more to go].</BLOCKQUOTE>

As you can see, she made both good and bad comments, though I feel that by telling us she was working hard, she was easing us into an unpleasant reality. We need to understand that this is the final book - and all the implications that come along with that. The books are so complex that it’s only natural the final one should be close to impossible to pen within a year. There are so many loose ends to tie up – some major, some minor, but almost all need to be explained in Book 7. That isn't an easy task.
Last June, during an interview with Richard & Judy, Jo said she had sometimes regretted writing certain things in previous books because, in doing so, she had “boxed herself in” for later books. I feel that, during the writing of Book 7, these obstacles will be far more prevalent and, most likely, more difficult to overcome.
I believe JK’s going to take the time to ensure everything is tied up in a nice, neat bow. When reminiscing in a few years' time on the phenomenon that is Harry Potter, is she going to want to think, “look at the mess I made of Book 7 - why did I rush it?”
No matter how much pressure the fans and publishers put her under, Jo will remain resolute. This is her book. She has said before she’s writing this for herself. She isn't going to do a rush-job just so we can get our blissful 7/7/07 release, or so the businesses behind Potterdom can earn big bucks more quickly. They are certainly significant factors and she isn’t going to ignore them – she knows we’re absolutely ravenous for the next book – but what’s important to her right now is the quality of the book, not the speed at which it’s produced.
At the moment, Jo isn’t going to be worrying about the release date. All she needs to focus on is the writing. Whether or not the fifth movie is coming next summer really makes no odds to her. Once she hands her publishers the manuscript she’s done. I don’t believe we should speculate any further on the release date until we hear something solid from Jo. It’s so variable that our conjecture couldn’t be close to accurate. However, when we find out she’s finished, then we can crack out our copies of Unfogging the Future and predict a release date!
If you have a comment on this opinion piece, please email me by selecting Ciaran on the feedback form. I welcome feedback!

from muggle net

Oh my, there's this huge battle going on inside me - I want her to finish the book until 7/07/07, but I also want it to be a cleanly, patiently written book. And I think she might want to take her time for that. But then again - HBP's title was also released for Christmas and then appeared in summer, so why wouldn't it be the case also for this one? I think she is probably close to the end of writing book 7, because she woulnd't have risked having to change the official title. So she's definitely at a point where the title is clear to her - thus, towards the end.

EDIT: oh yeah, and seeing the movie and reading the book - all in one week - that would be Harry Potter heaven for me! XD

Well now we know that the book is out on the 21/7/07 though I wish it was the 7/7/07 it would have worked with the 7 is the most magical number and that there are 7 horcruxes and that it is the 7th book but never mind.
I think that it really is going to be a pottermania month and not to mention the huge Harry Potter birthday party on the 31st XD